Υπερβολική πίστη στα προγνωστικά στοιχήματος και άλλα σφάλματα των παικτών

Είναι κοινό μυστικό αλλά και μυστικό ότι τα προγνωστικά στοιχήματος είναι το κλειδί για ένα καλό κουπόνι που μπορεί να αποφέρει και αρκετά σημαντικά κέρδη. Γιατί τότε όμως ακούμε τόσες ιστορίες για ανθρώπους που έχουν χάσει τα μαλλιά της κεφαλής τους στο στοίχημα; Δεν έπαιζαν με προγνωστικά αυτοί; Τι ακριβώς πήγε στραβά; Η απάντηση στα παραπάνω ερωτήματα δεν είναι ακριβώς απλή, αλλά είναι αρκετά ξεκάθαρη: υπέπεσαν σε κάποιο ή ακόμη και κάποια από τα σφάλματα των παικτών στοιχήματος.

Λέγοντας σφάλματα των παικτών στοιχήματος δεν εννοούμε φυσικά τις λάθος προβλέψεις ή τα λάθος δελτία. Με άλλα λόγια, δεν εννοούμε περιπτώσεις όπου ή όποια αποτυχία οφείλεται σχεδόν αποκλειστικά ή κατά κύριο λόγο σε τυχαίους παράγοντες όπως τον τραυματισμό ενός star player κατά την προπόνηση πριν από ένα «σίγουρο» ματς. Μιλάμε για συγκεκριμένες συμπεριφορές οι οποίες κάνουν την αποτυχία στο στοίχημα πολύ μα πάρα πολύ πιθανή. Ας δούμε τις πιο σημαντικές από αυτές.

Το στοίχημα σαν καριέρα

Δεν είναι λίγοι αυτοί που πιστεύουν ότι μπορούν να βγάλουν όσα λεφτά χρειάζονται για να ζήσουν απλά και μόνο παίζοντας στοίχημα, στην ουσία ανακυκλώνοντας τα κέρδη τους επενδύοντας τα σε νέα «σίγουρα» ματς, δημιουργώντας έτσι μία «μηχανή παραγωγής κερδών». Αυτό το σφάλμα παρατηρείται κυρίως σε άτομα νεαρής ηλικίας τα οποία και παρασέρνονται από ιστορίες που ακούν στα πρακτορεία και αλλού, αλλά αυτό δε σημαίνει ότι δεν μπορούν να πέσουν θύματα του εν λόγω σφάλματος ακόμη και πιο ώριμα άτομα. Τα πράγματα είναι απλά: το στοίχημα ΣΕ ΚΑΜΙΑ ΠΕΡΙΠΤΩΣΗ δεν μπορεί να γίνει καριέρα. Αν ίσχυε αυτό, τότε όλοι όσοι δίνουν προβλέψεις και προγνωστικά για στοίχημα αυτή τη στιγμή θα ήταν εκατομμυριούχοι.

Το σφάλμα του τζογαδόρου

Η εν λόγω κακή συμπεριφορά παρατηρείται όχι μόνο στο στοίχημα, αλλά σε όλα τα παιχνίδια που βασίζονται στο ποντάρισμα και σε κάποιο βαθμό στη τύχη. Με απλά λόγια, αν ένας παίκτης χάσει αρκετές φορές, νιώθει ότι πρέπει να συνεχίζει να παίζει γιατί η τύχη του θα αλλάξει και όπου να’ ναι θα κερδίσει. Με άλλα λόγια, πιστεύει ότι με κάθε ήττα αυξάνονται οι πιθανότητες να κερδίσει το επόμενο παιχνίδι. Δεν είναι σπάνιο λοιπόν να βλέπουμε παίκτες να παίζουν το ένα αποτυχημένο δελτίο μετά το άλλο χωρίς ιδιαίτερη μελέτη και σκέψη πιστεύοντας πως σε λίγο θα έρθει και η σειρά τους να κερδίσουν. Εννοείται ότι στο στοίχημα και στα τυχερά παιχνίδια δεν υπάρχει κάποιο όριο αποτυχιών (στα αγγλικά pity timer): σε κάθε παιχνίδι ο παίκτης έχει τις ίδιες πιθανότητες να κερδίσει με το προηγούμενο.

Υπερβολική πίστη στη στατιστική

Μπορεί η τύχη να παίζει κάποιο ρόλο στην εξέλιξη ενός στοιχήματος, αλλά αυτός – όπως έχουμε πει και παραπάνω – δεν είναι σημαντικός. Κάποιοι παίκτες όμως απλά δεν θέλουν να το καταλάβουν αυτό κι έτσι συχνά λαμβάνουν υπόψη και διάφορους «μυστήριους» παράγοντες όταν διαλέγουν τα παιχνίδια του δελτίου τους, όπως το ιστορικό των αναμετρήσεων ανάμεσα στις δύο ομάδες. Τα στατιστικά αυτά στοιχεία είναι μεν ενδιαφέροντα, αλλά δεν παίζουν σημαντικό ρόλο στα προγνωστικά. Είναι άλλωστε πιθανό, αν όχι και σίγουρο, ότι οι αντίπαλες ομάδες είχαν εντελώς διαφορετική δυναμικότητα μερικά χρόνια ή ακόμη και μερικούς μήνες πριν. Κάθε αγώνας είναι μοναδικός και οι παράγοντες που παράγουν το αποτέλεσμα του είναι μοναδικοί. Η στατιστική δεν έχει μεγάλη αξία για τα προγνωστικά στοιχήματος.

Υπερβολική πίστη στα προγνωστικά

Τα προγνωστικά είναι στην ουσία ένας μπούσουλας για το κάθε δελτίο. Στη ουσία δίνουν μια γενική εικόνα για το πώς ΑΝΑΜΕΝΕΤΑΙ να εξελιχθεί ο αγώνας και σε καμία περίπτωση δεν αποτελούν μια «προαναγγελία» του αποτελέσματος. Καλά τα προγνωστικά, αλλά πάντα θα πρέπει να κρατάτε και μία πισινή και να μην βάζετε τα πόδια σας μέρα από το στρώμα. Με άλλα λόγια, δεν πρέπει να χάνετε τη στρατηγική και τον αυτοέλεγχο σας επειδή νομίζετε ότι έχετε βρει πολύ καλά και αξιόπιστα προγνωστικά.

1,182 thoughts on “Υπερβολική πίστη στα προγνωστικά στοιχήματος και άλλα σφάλματα των παικτών

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  234. But what she really wants is for me to be her butler and give her every need and want she desires. God loves us all and wants us to seek Jesus (who defeated sin on the cross) and in that we will be better people and be granted mercy if we try to follow God’s laws as set forth in his book (The Bible) but know that in the flesh (in this life) we will have challenges due to the sin nature and as such with faith we constantly repent and seek out our father in Jesus name. No I said we had freedom of speech and information, there is a big difference between that and murder, one pertains to the rights of the individual, I have the right to read what I want the other pertains to the rights of another, they have a right to life and security when you try to tell someone they cannot read something you are taking away that persons rights, when you tell someone they can’t murder people you are protecting the rights of others, it’s a big difference.

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  237. With Trump’s history, what media attention did he get in 2016? Free media coverage of his BS but no real investigative journalism. All noise was covered……criminal activity, Crickets. Except sex with a porn star. …

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  242. Wouldn’t you want to jirk off with an other guy in the locker room, and cum together? So today’s radical feminists are fighting to establish female superiority and many females will find themselves with more power and control over their male counterparts than they really want as having power and control over someone else requires tons of responsibility. The extent to which female supremacists, especially the male ones, will go to “prove” female superiority never ceases to shock me. In brain male and female are same. In terms of absolute strength, men are superior, but when compared for body mass to gain relative strength differences using allometric scaling, men are still stronger but the difference is small(McArdle, Katch and Katch, 2010). And men and women actually have a very similar split of muscle fibre percentage. A women(of similar weight, height, body fat percent who doesn’t do any strength training or any other similar training) will have about 40-45% of upper body strength to that of a man, 70-80% of the lower body strength to that of a man.

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  247. But so began the reign of the Golden Eagle. Having excessive children became so prevalent in poorer neighborhoods in major American cities at the beginning of the 20th century that Margaret Sanger, a nurse and birth control pioneer and activist, began to educated poor, indigent, and less educated women on the importance of family planning and contraception. These women elected to have smaller families in order to devote their attention to both their careers and their children. No doubt women have been in situations where they didn’t have the right to do certain things that men had. We all know that Duke Nukem Forever has been in development for years upon years – right since 1997 (some say 1998… idiots). Enter Duke Nukem 64, released back in 1997. It was one of, if not the most impressive ports of Duke Nukem 3D, for the Nintendo 64, despite its shying away from sex and nudity.

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  250. Information may be sorted by crime, date or distance from the listed address and broken down over a number of time periods. One example of many horror stories, we emailed them about of a recently convicted rapist in Woodbury who admitted unapologetic to police he raped a 13 year old girl “over 130 times;” but was only sentenced to 8 years. An academic convicted of sexually assaulting a young girl eight years ago has been jailed after police found sick images of children on his computer. Trant also lit a fire at a boarding house on nearby Spring Street, where six other convicted sex offenders lived. But you cannot call the prepared romantic dinner party as romantic dinner sex. Yudkin was disqualified from working with children and placed on the Sex Offenders’ Register for seven years. He was sentenced to three years’ probation and placed on the Sex Offenders’ Register for five years.

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